2010 Senate Election Outlook

UPDATED OCTOBER 12, 2010: With three weeks to go before the election, the Democrats appear to be on track to hold the Senate but just barely. The new count at this time would be 49 GOP, 50 Democrats and 1 independent who votes with the Democrats.UPDATED AUGUST 30, 2010: If the election were held at the end of August, the GOP would probably take seven Democratic seats but would fail to gain control of the body. Four Democratic seats now leaning Democratic are in possible play, Nevada, California, Wisconsin and West Virginia. The GOPpers would have to take three of the four and that seems unlikely at this time. In addition, the Republicans would have to maintain leads in the seats that they seem likely to gain, and there are some marginal leads at best, especially in Illinois and Colorado. The Alaska upheaval could also cause a GOP loss there. This will be an exciting year for Senate control.ORIGINAL COMMENT: JULY 14, 2010:In the middle of July, 2010, the GOPpers are in good sha... Read more

A few months ago I would have said that the GOP was all but a lock to regain control of the senate. Now, thanks in no small part to the activities of the Tea Party nitwits who have managed to get some serious bull goose loonies the nomination in some key races, its looking more like a saw off. Here's a new conspiracy theory for you. The Democratic National Committee is secretly funding the Tea Party. You heard it here first.

Clearly 6 months ago the GOP was tee'd up to give the Democrats a good spanking and possibly ride the momentum all the way to 2012 if they played their cards right. It seems though that they have stolen a page from the Democrat playbook and are looking to snatch a couple of more years of aggravation from the jaws of almost certain victory. Maybe they can put Howard Dean on the payroll as a consultant.

I would give the Democrats 4 to 1 odds of keeping the Senate. The House is much more interesting.

zzzzzzz..... I get more apathetic about politics every year to the point where I could care less which rich idiot is in whatever seat.

There have been some major upsets in both parties this year. Lots of retirements and long time incumbents losing primaries. There are unique dynamics at play this year. The composition of the 112th Congress is going to be very different from this one. My guess is that it will be much more polarized than this one, since the margin between both parties will likely shrink. Either the Democrats will have to operate with smaller majorities, or the Republicans might regain a slight majority in either chamber. The House looks more likely right now, but a 10 seat gain for Senate Republicans can't be ruled out. After looking at the state-by-state polling, I've come to the same conclusion as Genghis. The GOP should be looking, at a bare minimum, a net gain of 4 seats in the Senate. That will give the Democrats 55 seats in the Senate. Indiana, North Dakota, Arkansas, and Delaware look like definite gains for the Republicans. In all those races, the GOP scored on major recruitment targ... Read more