South Lebanon
5
Historically this has been a very tough neighborhood. Southern Lebanon is one of those spots where many different cultures and religions meet in a not so peaceful way, much like the former Yugoslavia, an area of the world which has in recent years been beset by civil strife. In the case of Lebanon, we have Sunni and Shi'ite Muslims fighting at each other along with the Christian and Druze elements of the population. Lebanon spent nearly 25 years fighting a major civil war. One of the primary results of this was the interference of foreign influences, like Hezbollah, which is funded by Iran and the Syrians, which has had a major hand in Lebanese affairs. All of this has created a situation where the central Lebanese government is decidedly weak. Indeed, Hezbollah rules much of the countryside.
Which leads us to the current situation between Israel and Lebanon. Like Genghis, I also sympathize with Israel's geopolitical situation, but their moves against Lebanon were completely foolhardy and unnecessary, indeed, it put them in a lose-lose situation. While Israel hammered away at Beirut's infrastructure, Hezbollah was busy lobbing nearly 3,000 rockets on Northern Israel. By the time the Israeli army moved against the REAL enemy Hezbollah, Israel had already suffered irreparable damage as a fighting country with moral standards. The major Arab powers, including the Saudi's, had condemned Hezbollah at the start of the fighting. But as Israel began attacking the Lebanese people rather than Hezbollah during the war, that international support disappeared.
Of course, there were a few losers here. The primary one of course was Lebanon herself, which suffered hundreds dead, thousands injured and one million refugees. A nation which was just coming out of 25 years of civil war, with much of its infrastructure unnecessarily destroyed, has been set back at least 20 years. If the Lebanese government does indeed fall as a result of this, Israel will have more problems along the border, as Hezbollah will likely fill that power vacuum. Remember, this is the same Lebanese government which came to power last year democratically under Bush-Cheney's support. As it stands, Israel has probably made a new enemy in the form of the Lebanese government and its people. Israel also lost, both morally, politically and militarily. Israel has survived in this tough neighborhood primarily on its power of deterrence. This major loss is a major erosion of this. Politically, the Premiership of Ehud Olmert along with his new party, Kadima, is all but over. America in a sense is also a loser here, because we dropped our historical role as a control valve for Israel in these situations. We just sat back and let Israel attack greater Lebanon. The reality is that Israel could have gotten the job done by just hitting Hezbollah's positions in Southern Lebanon from the get-go.
What happens now? Syria and Iran are really the big winners now, which explains why both Israel and the US are now egging on both of those regimes, yet another foolhardy move. Indeed, both Israel and America have lost their power of deterrence, specially with regards to the Middle East. With each passing day, Iran gains more power in the Middle East, primarily because of the rise of a majority Shi'ite government in Iraq that is allied with Iran. This is the last thing we want, for that will create a block of fundamentalist states going against our interests. We're also unwittingly making Iran a regional superpower, and they're goading us on because they know that with us tied up in Iraq, there is little that we can do. So, not to sound negative, but in short, our inept foreign policies in the Middle East have put this country in a very tight position.