I don't have a feel for this one even this close to election day. I'm guessing that the momentum is probably with Webb, however.

I view this as a theoretical microcosm of political thought nationwide. Webb is a worthy candidate, Allen has done his best George W. Bush inpersonation of late, essentially jump-starting Webb's campaign for him. Webb has employed all the easy "mainstream media bumper-stiicker" rhetoric written for him by the liberal contingent (85%) of the national press, and "VOILA" we have a contentious race. The republican party leadership will spare no expense to keep Allen in the Senate. Everything that can be done will be done but it looks today like they have misunderestimated the potential role of the hatred and resentment Bush has allowed to foment among the democrats.

This is one of the "big three" contests that will end up determining control of the Senate. Which ever party manages to win 2 out of the 3 Senate contests in Missouri, Tennessee and Virginia will likely determine who controls the Senate. Of course, there are other x factors, namely, whether the Republicans manage to score an upset in another state like New Jersey, which looks competitive for Democrats. But these are the three big races.

Virginia actually wasn't supposed to be competitive, but then again, control of the Senate wasn't supposed to be up for grabs at this point. This race has closed up primarily because of some high profile gaffes which Senator George Allen committed in the campaign trail. It all started with the infamous "macaca" comment and it just went from there. Reporters started digging up Allen's past, which essentially found that he had a significantly racist past. Despite all the mea culpas, Allen has had a tough time getting back his balance. Meanwhile the Democrats managed to capitalize on Allen's weakness to turn the campaign into a debate over Iraq and other national issues. James Webb, a former Secretary of the Navy under Ronald Reagan and a Republican who ironically supported Allen in his 2000 campaign is running against him on the Democratic ticket. Although this is his first political campaign, he has done a decent job in keeping right up. His strength on national security has really benefited him in this state with a large military and navy population. But his campaign would have never gained traction had it not been for Allen's missteps. That gave Webb the opening to attack, and encouraged national fundraisers to contribute to his poorly funded campaign. Allen has run a very bad campaign; indeed, the Senator, who harbored Presidential ambitions, has been very severely damaged by this. His concern shouldn't be running for President in 2008, it should be holding on for his political life. Of course, if he loses, there's no chance that he will get the GOP nomination for President. Indeed, even if he wins, the party will never nominate someone like Allen.

Virginia has three distinct geographical areas: the Tidewater, Northern Virginia (Washington DC's suburbs) and Southwest Virginia. Northern Virginia is fairly Democratic, the Tidewater is becoming more Democratic and Southwest Virginia is conservative. Webb can win if he manages to generate strong support among moderate Republicans and independents in Northern Virginia and turnout the Democratic base, while cutting into Allen's base in Southern Virginia. The Tidewater will be key: perhaps Webb's connection as a Navy man might help him here, being that one of the largest naval ports in the country is located there in Norfolk. That and trends indicating that Democrats are doing rather well in that part of the state. So far, Webb has run a competent, if uncertain campaign at times. That might be enough to beat a blundering Allen campaign that is closely tied to an unpopular Bush administration.