Libyan Uprising
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Not terribly shocking that the wave of revolts against aging kleptocrats has reached Libya. Activity started picking up about 2 weeks ago, but the real momentum got going a couple of days ago with the fall of the Egyptian government, just across the border.
Right now, the eastern half of the country (which is culturally and almost administratively separated from the capital Tripoli in the West) is controlled by military forces agitating for a change in regime. Two major tribes that were never in Qadhafi's pocket have also made their intentions clear that they will back the revolt along with various public figures within and outside the country. People who have been waiting over a generation for a crease to open are making their move, for better or worse.
Unlike Mubarak in Egypt, Qadhafi seems ready to challenge the domestic and international forces agitating for his removal, and it is likely to get very bloody before its all said and done. Also, we can't rule out the potential of NATO forces getting involved here.
The Libyan government is well known for its reputation as a hotbed for anti-American activity, but over the past 8-10 years, the country has opened up dramatically to Western investment and influence. It was a move of self-preservation on the part of Qadhafi, who realized after Saddam Hussein's fall that the Americans meant business. That, and he did have a common enemy with Islamicists who sought to destablize his regime. By 2009, US-Libyan relations were largely normalized, if but for a few rocky points here and there.
Libya in recent years though began to develop its massive oil reserves, especially in the south of the country. While Qadhafi was more open to Western influence, he still clung to vestiges of Nasserite nationalism that originally inspired the officers coup that brought him to power in 1969. The West has never looked kindly to that ideology, even to the point of equating it with a form of terrorism. Nationalization of assets, a non-aligned political stance, and independent modernization are all cardinal sins in the eyes of the US, even if the regime in question is secular in orientation. Yet, for all of the Libyan government's openings to the West, they still didn't have much control over the country's financial framework.
Recently Qadhafi started doing business with China and Russia on national infrastructure projects like water works, pipelines, and refineries. The Italians under Berlusconi (another government that has gone anti-American in recent years) are also involved in Libya. These moves, along with Qadhafi's continued support for Iran's nuclear ambition's, stymied American relations with the country over the past year or two after years of progress. Like other North African/Middle Eastern/Asian countries, this one is being targeted for regime change, much along the lines of Egypt and Tunisia, with the purpose of putting in a new government that works towards Western interests more vigorously.
However, Qadhafi is no Ben Ali or Mubarak. He's willing to "go to the mattresses" and fight rival clans and military factions, even if it tears the country asunder, even if it means a potential foreign occupation by NATO forces. Stay tuned on this one. More updates to come...
UPDATE 1: The trouble with all these revolutions is predicting the direction that these countries will take after the fall of its governments. Unlike more mature democracies, these places generally don't have strong and active opposition movements. Some like in Egypt and Tunisia have groups that act with Western funding and help, but in places like Libya, where the political system is very closed and tightly controlled, that doesn't happen much. The political order in these countries is very atomized. That increases the risk of great political instability after the fall of any government, much as we saw after Saddam Hussein fell in Iraq.
In Libya's case, the US does have contacts with expat community in London, Switzerland, and Egypt, but these figures lack internal support within the army and the tribal units. We have seen a few generals within the army declare their opposition to Qadhafi, but the army itself has been kept weak to prevent any coups. The real source of power within Libya are his personal guard and the paid mercenaries that he's trucking in from parts of Africa.
Bottom line, anything can happen after it's all said and done. We don't know what we're going to get. Look at what has happened in Iraq. The quislings that we brought in to run the show like Ahmad Chalabi turned out to be Iranian agents, thus shoring up that countries position in the region. Saddam Hussein was certainly anti-American, but he acted as a bulwark against iran. Same went for the Taliban in Afghanistan. Politics in this part of the world is messy in good times, with alliance patterns shifting quickly. Imagine now.