Iowa (Charles Grassley-R)

Some polls have generated some interesting narratives, but Grassley is a moderate which appeals to Iowans.

The GOP appears to be on an uptick in the Iowa political cycle and although Grassley is a little long in the tooth, he shouldn't have to break a sweat to win another term in 2010.

Chuck Grassley has never dropped below 66% in any of his re-election races to the Senate. He has been in the Senate since the 1970's and has a relatively moderate record. Voters in his state know him well and he makes it a point to deliver in constituent services.

Had he run 2 or 4 years ago, he might have had a relatively difficult race because of national trends, but they should benefit him this time. The Republican incumbents running in this cycle are particularly lucky: they were last elected/re-elected in the 2004 cycle, when Republican support was peaking (except in state legislature races), now they're running again in a beneficial cycle.

Iowa is a state that is fairly evenly divided between Republicans and Democrats. Barack Obama won about 53% of the vote in 2008, which was about the same as his national total. This is one of those states that act as a bellwether for national trends. They generally send moderates to Congress.