If it's gonna take the Repubs two cycles to get back into power then Obama figures to win a re-election in 2012. I think he will, but it will be tough because the Repubs figure to throw out an appealing candidate by then, ironically learning from Obama's campaign what one might be like. But I think by 2012 the country will start to see some positive changes that will sway voters to give Obama four more years to keep the upswing going. I think his chances are more like 65/35 IMHO.